0050現在的位置，比200日均線高出26%。美股高9%，日股高10.9%。三個市場全部站在多頭區間，這是這週美股、台股、日股數據攤開來的樣子。廣告業做預算配置也常碰到類似的判斷題：手上的錢該壓在正在漲的通路，還是留一手應付轉彎。差別是股市轉彎的訊號，比媒體投放清楚多了。
先看美國。就業數據放軟，美元維持區間震盪，市場的注意力已經轉向後面要公布的PMI和就業修正數字。這不是衰退訊號——殖利率曲線10年期減2年期利差擴大到+0.43%，曲線持續正常化，高收益債利差降到2.66%，信用市場資金鬆得很。芝加哥聯準銀行的金融狀況指數是-0.558，Sahm Rule指標-0.03%，離觸發衰退警報還有一段距離。數字都在說同一件事：現在還不是收手的時候。
央行各吹各的調
有意思的是非美貨幣這邊，各國央行完全不同調。日本央行升息與貨幣正常化的預期在升溫，USD/JPY持續在測試關鍵支撐；加拿大央行放出意外鷹派訊號，USD/CAD面臨進一步下行風險；澳洲第2季GDP年增2.1%，連續三季貼近潛在成長率，核心通膨還卡在3.6%，市場已經在賭澳洲央行升息。三個央行，三種姿態，美元指數反而因為缺乏單邊催化劑,顯得沒方向。這種分歧對匯率部位是機會也是麻煩——非美貨幣相對強勢，但企業和投資人得認真做匯率風險的規避,不能靠猜。
台灣的位置，比較尷尬
台股電子與半導體供應鏈維持高位動能，美股那邊科技硬體與AI供應鏈也在強勁基本面撐出52週新高突破，戴爾是其中一個指標股。聽起來是好消息，但台灣這台AI引擎跑得越快，暴露的風險就越大。台灣央行7月理監事會議記錄已經寫進正式文件：AI驅動的景氣擴張集中在科技業,傳統產業與低收入群體受益有限。兩位董事當時主張該升息,理由是CPI連續兩個月超過2%,定期存款實質利率已經是負的,結果被多數否決。這代表什麼？代表台灣正在用非科技業者的成本,補貼AI供應鏈的擴張。這不是陰謀論，是央行自己承認的分配問題。
更麻煩的是,台股對外部貨幣政策的敏感度已經被驗證過一次。今年6月8日,美國5月非農就業數據意外強勁,引發市場對Fed升息的疑慮，TAIEX盤中最大跌幅超過2,600點,收盤跌1,568點，是台股史上第三大跌點。TSMC盤中創歷史新低。原因很簡單:TSMC市值占台股超過四成,台股實質上就是半導體加AI供應鏈的體溫計。這次美國就業數據轉弱、美元區間震盪，理論上對台股是喘息空間,但前提是不要重演6月那種急轉彎。
順勢，但要有停損
當三大指數都站在200日均線之上，順勢而為、讓利潤跑,是合理的策略,但紀律不能少——用客觀支撐位和移動停損卡住風險。台灣另一個變數是美國財政部已經把台灣列入匯率監控名單,對美貿易順差衝到1450億美元,經常帳順差占GDP比重達19.6%,主要靠半導體與AI產品需求撐出來的。這種順差規模,遲早會變成貿易談判桌上的籌碼,新台幣升值壓力不會自己消失。做資產配置的人,盯著均線和利差之餘,這條線也得放進備忘錄。
— 胡凱翊
TAIEX Is 26% Above Its 200-Day Line — Time to Buy More or Pull Back
0050 is trading 26% above its 200-day moving average right now. The S&P is up 9% above the same line, Japan’s EWJ up 10.9%. All three markets are sitting in bull territory this week. Ad budget allocation runs into the same question all the time: pour more into the channel that’s already working, or hold back for the turn. The difference is equity markets give you cleaner signals than media spend ever does.
Start with the US. Jobs data came in soft, the dollar stayed range-bound, and attention has shifted to the upcoming PMI and payroll revision numbers. This isn’t a recession signal — the yield curve spread between the 10-year and 2-year widened to +0.43%, continuing its normalization. High-yield credit spreads dropped to 2.66%, meaning credit markets are flush. The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index sits at -0.558, still loose. The Sahm Rule indicator reads -0.03%, well below the trigger threshold. The numbers all say the same thing: not time to pull back yet.
Central Banks, Playing Different Songs
What’s interesting is how non-dollar currencies are diverging. The Bank of Japan is signaling rate hikes and policy normalization, pushing USD/JPY to test key support. The Bank of Canada surprised with a hawkish tone, putting USD/CAD at risk of further downside. Australia posted 2.1% annual GDP growth in Q2, its third straight quarter near potential growth, with core inflation still sitting at 3.6% — enough to fuel bets on an RBA hike. Three central banks, three different postures, and the dollar index looks directionless simply because it lacks a single catalyst. That divergence is both opportunity and headache for currency positioning — non-dollar currencies look relatively strong, but hedging needs discipline, not guesswork.
Taiwan’s Awkward Spot
Taiwan’s electronics and semiconductor supply chain is holding at highs, and US tech hardware and AI supply chain names — Dell among them — just broke out to 52-week highs on solid fundamentals. Sounds like good news, but the faster Taiwan’s AI engine runs, the more exposed it gets. Minutes from Taiwan’s central bank meeting in July already put it on record: AI-driven growth is concentrated in the tech sector, with limited benefit to traditional industries and lower-income groups. Two board members had argued for a rate hike, pointing to CPI exceeding 2% for two straight months and negative real interest rates on term deposits. They were outvoted. What does that mean? It means non-tech sectors are effectively subsidizing the AI supply chain’s expansion. Not a conspiracy — the central bank said it themselves.
Taiwan’s sensitivity to external monetary policy has already been tested once this year. On June 8, unexpectedly strong US non-farm payroll data for May triggered fears of a Fed hike, and TAIEX dropped more than 2,600 points intraday — closing down 1,568 points, the third-largest point drop in the index’s history. TSMC hit an intraday record low. The reason is simple: TSMC alone accounts for over 40% of TAIEX’s market cap, making the index essentially a thermometer for the semiconductor and AI supply chain. This week’s softer US jobs data and range-bound dollar offer some breathing room — as long as it doesn’t reverse the way June did.
Ride the Trend, Keep the Stop-Loss
With all three major indices above their 200-day lines, trend-following with disciplined stop-losses at objective support levels is the reasonable play. Taiwan carries an extra variable: the US Treasury has already placed it on its currency monitoring list, with a trade surplus with the US hitting $145 billion and a current account surplus reaching 19.6% of GDP, driven largely by semiconductor and AI product demand. That kind of surplus tends to become a bargaining chip in trade talks eventually, and pressure for the currency to appreciate doesn’t just go away. Anyone doing asset allocation should keep that line item next to the moving averages and rate spreads.
— 胡凱翊
延伸閱讀
https://justfly.idv.tw/s/5sj64Ci