台積電（2330）本週收在 $2,420 台幣，波段新高，成交量 4,714 張。這不是隨便漲的那種，外資沒有撤，籌碼沒有鬆，法說會前的位置擺在那裡。
燈全綠，但不代表可以閉眼
宏觀面五個警示燈這週全數亮綠。高收益債信用利差 2.74%，處於健康區間；Sahm Rule 讀數 0.07，距離 0.5 的衰退觸發線還很遠；芝加哥 NFCI 負 0.504，金融環境偏向寬鬆；失業率 4.2%，Fed 基準利率維持 3.75%。整體 Risk Regime 判定為 RISK_ON，三大市場 200 日均線全線多頭。
燈全綠讓人舒服，但廣告圈有一個教訓——消費者最安靜的時候往往是轉台的前一秒。這週 10Y 殖利率升了 11bp 來到 4.49%，30Y 已經站在 4.98%。殖利率曲線維持正斜（+0.35%），衰退訊號沒出，但利率端的壓力在悄悄積累。
科技股分化，蘋果跳、輝達跌
SPY 收 $744.78，週跌 0.13%，200 日均線上方仍有 +8.14% 的緩衝。問題在 QQQ，單週下跌 1.73%，AI 股的獲利了結情緒明顯。NVDA 從高位回落 1.39% 至 $194.83，高位遇賣壓這件事本身不稀奇，但跟上週相比，方向是反的。
AAPL 單日暴漲 +4.84% 至 $308.63，是本週美股最強標的。急拉這種走法，追高的風險比看起來大——量能能不能跟上、下週能不能守住，才是真正的考驗。MSFT 的 +1.62% 是那種悶聲不響的雲端邏輯，反而是三者裡最讓人放心的節奏。
台股這端，0050已經飛了很遠
元大台灣50（0050）本週報 $108.80，在 200 日均線上方整整 +46.47%。聯發科（2454）$4,160、鴻海（2317）$236.50，各守各的位置。
台積電的故事更清楚：台積電先進產能的需求結構沒有鬆動，AI HPC 的長期接單邏輯持續撐著估值。法說會前後若外資持續加碼，$2,450–$2,480 是合理的目標區間，停損放 $2,350。這是目前市場上少數「基本面與技術面方向一致」的標的。
下週一個變數：CPI
日股 EWJ 收 $93.14，200 日均線上方 +9.79%，多頭結構穩固。BoJ 升息週期下，MUFG、SMFG 這類金融股值得持續觀察。
整週看下來，格局是「大盤韌性、科技分化」——SPY 撐著，QQQ 在喘氣，台積電自己走自己的。真正的風險不在任何單一數字，而在下週 CPI 數字。若超預期，10Y 殖利率可能推升至 4.6%，科技股的估值壓力會被放大，QQQ 的持倉就需要重新審視。這個市場現在選股比選市場更關鍵，這句話不是廢話，是因為這份週報裡，AAPL 和 NVDA 同週走出了截然相反的方向。
— 胡凱翊
延伸閱讀
TSMC Hits a New High and Zero Alarms Firing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330) closed at NT$2,420 this week — a new range high — on volume of 4,714 lots. The position isn’t accidental. Foreign buying held, distribution didn’t show up, and the earnings call is approaching. That combination keeps the setup intact.
All Five Macro Lights Are Green
Every macro warning indicator came in clean. High-yield credit spreads sit at 2.74%, the Sahm Rule reads 0.07 (well clear of the 0.5 recession trigger), Chicago NFCI is at -0.504 (easy financial conditions), unemployment holds at 4.2%, and the Fed keeps its benchmark rate at 3.75%. Risk Regime: RISK_ON. All three markets sit above their 200-day moving averages.
A clean dashboard is reassuring. But the 10Y yield climbed 11bp this week to 4.49%, with the 30Y now at 4.98%. The yield curve stays positive (+0.35% 10Y-2Y spread), so no recession signal. Still, rate pressure is quietly building — something to watch into next week’s CPI print.
Tech Diverged Hard
SPY closed at $744.78, down just 0.13% for the week, sitting 8.14% above its 200-day moving average. The damage was in QQQ, which fell 1.73% — profit-taking in AI names was real. NVDA dropped 1.39% to $194.83, pulling back from elevated levels.
AAPL was the week’s standout, surging +4.84% in a single session to $308.63. Single-day spikes like that carry more risk than the headline suggests — the question is whether volume follows through next week. MSFT’s quiet +1.62% on cloud strength looks more durable by comparison.
Taiwan: TSMC Runs Its Own Race
0050 closed at NT$108.80, sitting 46.47% above its 200-day moving average. MediaTek (2454) at NT$4,160, Foxconn (2317) at NT$236.50. Solid positions across the board.
TSMC’s story is the clearest one in the region right now. Advanced node demand from AI and HPC applications hasn’t softened. If foreign institutional buying continues through the earnings call window, NT$2,450–2,480 is a reasonable target, with a stop at NT$2,350. Not many names in this market have fundamental and technical momentum pointing the same direction — this is one of them.
One Number That Changes Everything Next Week
EWJ closed at $93.14, 9.79% above its 200-day moving average. Under the Bank of Japan’s rate hike cycle, financials like MUFG and SMFG are worth tracking.
The week’s shape was “index resilience, tech divergence.” SPY held, QQQ breathed, TSMC did its own thing. The real variable arrives with next week’s CPI. If it surprises to the upside, the 10Y could push toward 4.6% and compress tech valuations further — which means QQQ positioning deserves a hard look. AAPL and NVDA moved in opposite directions in the same week. That alone argues for stock selection over market-level bets.
— 胡凱翊
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