10 月 15 日，加權指數單日跌 3.4%，收 46,970。七個交易日前還在 49,822。外資對 2330 連賣 6 日，近 5 日合計賣超約 5,528 萬股，2454、2308、2303 也被連賣 5 到 6 天。螢幕一片綠，最容易出現的動作是同一個：把預算砍掉。
廣告公司每季都會碰到這一幕。客戶看到一週的轉換數字難看，第一反應是整個投放暫停。三週後數字回來了，流量已經被競品拿走，要重新買回來，成本比當初不停還高。市場和客戶預算一樣，遇到不確定時，最貴的錯誤通常是全部撤退。
先看趨勢線，再看那一根長黑
回檔很深，趨勢線還在。加權指數這週雖然一週修正 5.7%，元大台灣50 收 113.0，仍高於 200 日均線 91.32，差距 +23.74%。SPY 收 771.79，高於 721.47 的 200 日均線 6.97%。EWJ 收 95.43，高於 90.88 的 200 日均線 5.01%。三個市場都站在長期均線之上。
總經面也沒有警報。總經 Risk Regime 為 RISK_ON，5 項警報 0 項觸發。10Y-2Y 利差 +0.33%，高收益債信用利差 3.25%，NFCI -0.499 屬寬鬆，Sahm Rule 為 0.0，失業率 4.2%（2026 年 9 月）。這張成績單很難讀成衰退前夕。
所以這週的台股比較像高檔修正，不像趨勢破壞。前者可以分批面對，後者才需要停損離場。
兩把鎖：利率與油價
風險資產頭上有兩把鎖。第一把是利率。美國 10 年期公債殖利率 10 月 14 日為 5.19%，15 日收 5.09%，週內從 5.28% 往下走。聯邦基金利率目標區間上緣 4.0%。9 月 FOMC 全數同意升息 0.25%，被當作風險管理的「保險」，多數委員認為年底前再升一次合適，但連續升息的意願看不出來。10 月按兵不動、利率高檔維持更久，是目前站得住腳的劇本。殖利率下滑、市場沒有加碼定價升息，與這個劇本吻合。
第二把是油價。WTI 從約 88 美元升到 10 月 15 日的 96 美元，六個交易日漲約 8.8%。供給下修、中東航運與管線風險撐著價格。不過 2027 年的預估供給轉為大幅過剩，96 美元以上比較像情緒價，不像均衡價。
美元的故事更拉扯。通膨偏熱的消息推升美元，殖利率下滑又壓著美元。美元指數 10 月 15 日 102.07，比前一天的 102.55 低。通膨偏熱，美元與殖利率仍一起下滑，結論是高檔區間整理，單邊走強的證據不夠。歐元偏弱，EUR/USD 本週在 1.116 到 1.122，還沒跌破關鍵的 1.1110。USD/JPY 在 157.96 到 158.52 窄幅整理，碰不到 160。
紀律的樣子
外資連賣是事實，籌碼資料只到 10 月 14 日。量化股債模型自 2025 年 3 月以來首次轉負，債市波動偏高，短線謹慎有它的道理。美股財報季 S&P 500 成分股預估 EPS 年增 30.6%，前期為 53.7%，重點在大型雲端業者的資本支出能不能維持。AI 財報是支撐，不是保證。
實際操作的語言很樸素：不追高，分批，不因單週回檔全面撤退。部位照 200 日均線的方向走，現金流留足，單日新聞不拿來改預算。
下旬有聯準會會議，11 月初還有美國的重要政治日程，10 月 25 日巴西也有決選。這些日子在行事曆上都已經圈好。圈起來的目的是提前知道何時會冒出砍預算的念頭，到時候先看一眼 200 日均線。
— 胡凱翊
Taiwan Stocks Fell 5.7% in a Week. Don’t Cut the Budget Yet.
On October 15, Taiwan’s weighted index fell 3.4% in a single day to close at 46,970. Seven trading days earlier it stood at 49,822. Foreign investors sold 2330 for six straight sessions, about 55.28 million shares over the last five days, and also dumped 2454, 2308 and 2303 for five to six days. With the screen all red, the most common reflex is the same one: cut the budget.
An ad agency sees this scene every quarter. A client looks at one ugly week of conversions and wants to pause the whole campaign. Three weeks later the numbers recover, competitors have taken the traffic, and buying it back costs more than never stopping. Markets work like client budgets. When things feel uncertain, the most expensive mistake is usually a full retreat.
Read the trend line before the long red candle
The pullback is deep, but the trend is intact. The index lost 5.7% in a week, yet the Yuanta Taiwan 50 ETF closed at 113.0, still above its 200-day moving average of 91.32, a gap of +23.74%. SPY closed at 771.79 against a 200-day average of 721.47, +6.97%. EWJ closed at 95.43 against 90.88, +5.01%. All three markets sit above their long-term averages.
The macro dashboard shows no alarm either. The risk regime reads RISK_ON, with 0 of 5 macro alerts triggered. The 10Y-2Y spread is +0.33%, the high-yield credit spread 3.25%, the Chicago Fed’s NFCI -0.499 (loose), the Sahm Rule 0.0, and unemployment 4.2% as of September 2026. That is a hard scorecard to read as a pre-recession picture.
This week in Taiwan looks like a correction at the highs, not a broken trend. The first can be met in tranches. Only the second calls for a stop-loss exit.
Two locks: rates and oil
Two locks sit above risk assets. The first is rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.19% on October 14 and closed at 5.09% on the 15th, down from 5.28% earlier in the week. The upper bound of the fed funds target range is 4.0%. The September FOMC voted unanimously for a 0.25% hike, framed as risk-management “insurance.” Most members see one more hike before year-end as appropriate, but there is no visible appetite for back-to-back moves. A hold in October with rates staying high for longer is the storyline that holds up. Falling yields and no extra hike priced in fit it.
The second lock is oil. WTI rose from about 88 dollars to 96 on October 15, roughly +8.8% in six trading days, supported by supply downgrades and Middle East shipping and pipeline risks. But 2027 supply is projected to swing into large surplus, so prices above 96 look like sentiment pricing, not equilibrium pricing.
The dollar is the most tangled story. Hot US inflation pushes it up, while falling yields push it down. The dollar index was 102.07 on October 15, below 102.55 the day before. With inflation running hot and the dollar and yields still sliding together, the read is range-bound at a high level, not a one-way rally. The euro is weak but unbroken: EUR/USD traded between 1.116 and 1.122, still above the key 1.1110. USD/JPY sat in a tight 157.96 to 158.52 band, unable to challenge 160.
What discipline looks like
Foreign selling is a fact, though the flow data only runs through October 14. A quantitative stock-bond model turned negative for the first time since March 2025, and bond volatility is high, so near-term caution has its reasons. In the US earnings season, S&P 500 constituents are expected to post 30.6% EPS growth, down from 53.7%, and the open question is whether the big cloud providers can sustain their capital spending. AI earnings are a support, not a guarantee.
The operating language is plain: don’t chase, scale in, don’t flee after one bad week. Let positions follow the direction of the 200-day line, keep cash flow healthy, and don’t rewrite the budget because of one day’s headlines.
A Fed meeting is due later this month, important US political dates follow in early November, and Brazil holds its runoff on October 25. All are already circled on the calendar. The point of circling them is to know in advance when the urge to cut the budget will strike. When it does, check the 200-day line first.
— 胡凱翊
延伸閱讀
https://justfly.idv.tw/s/bp6nLJT