6月11日，外資單日賣超廣達（2382）358億元。
這個數字值得停一秒。不是「賣了一些」，是單日三百五十八億。廣達這週現價372元，已經跌破所有短期均線，RSI掉到24——技術面的白話翻譯就是：賣方完全壓制，連反彈的力氣都快沒了。
同一時間，日股創歷史新高，美股小型股也跑得很開心。這週的市場氛圍是標準的RISK_ON，就是那種大家想買任何東西的狀態。廣達偏偏反向走。
基本面好得讓人懷疑
廣達2025年Q4的數字很難挑毛病：營收年增53%，單季EPS創歷史新高。公司是NVIDIA GB200、GB300供應鏈的核心組裝廠，雲端AI訂單持續進來。林百里之前也公開講過，AI伺服器這塊的成長是三位數的量級。
基本面這麼好，股票卻被外資當成退出標的——這種反差，我在廣告業也看過類似劇本：品牌聲勢最旺的時候，最早進場的投資人已經在看出口了。
外資在賣的，可能不是廣達的未來
外資大量出場，最常見的解釋有兩種。第一種是獲利了結。廣達過去一段時間漲幅顯著，Q4 EPS創高這個消息本身就是一個「利多出盡」的時機點——好消息已經反映在股價裡，EPS公布當天反而是最佳出場時機。第二種是資金輪動。外資要去追日股、追美股小型股，就得從台灣的重倉股裡抽資金，廣達作為高權重的科技股，自然是提款機首選。
這兩種解釋都不需要「廣達出了什麼問題」作為前提。這很重要。
RSI 24是嚴重超賣。但「超賣」這個指標只告訴你賣壓已經過度延伸，不告訴你賣壓什麼時候停。外資的籌碼還有多少？後續是否還有程式交易跟著砸？這些問題，技術指標回答不了。
RISK_ON大環境裡的個股地雷
這次廣達的情況說明了一件事：大盤樂觀不等於個股安全。RISK_ON代表市場整體願意承擔風險，但資金流向的選擇反而更主動——大家有得選的時候，反而會把績效好的股票賣掉去換更有想像空間的標的。
廣達的困境剛好卡在一個尷尬的位置：AI伺服器的成長故事大家都聽膩了，下一個催化劑（比如GB300量產出貨、新一輪法說會指引）還沒到。資金在等下一個故事的開頭，所以選擇先離場。
358億的賣超，不一定是市場在說廣達的故事結束了。但它確實在說：這個章節，暫時翻完了。
— 胡凱翊（Kevin）
本文為個人研究筆記，不構成任何投資建議。
延伸閱讀
Quanta’s Best Quarter Ever — Then Foreign Funds Dumped It
On June 11, foreign institutional investors sold NT$35.8 billion worth of Quanta Computer (2382) in a single day.
That number deserves a pause. Not “trimmed a position” — thirty-five-point-eight billion in one session. Quanta’s share price has since fallen to 372, below every short-term moving average, with RSI at 24. In plain language: sellers are fully in control and buying pressure is nearly exhausted.
Meanwhile, the Japanese market hit an all-time high and U.S. small-caps were charging ahead. The macro backdrop this week was textbook RISK_ON — the kind of environment where money flows into almost anything. Quanta moved the other way.
Fundamentals That Leave Nothing to Complain About
Quanta’s Q4 2025 numbers were difficult to fault: revenue up 53% year-over-year, EPS hitting a single-quarter record high. The company sits at the core of NVIDIA’s GB200 and GB300 server supply chain, with cloud AI orders running strong. Chairman Barry Lam has stated publicly that AI server revenue growth is tracking at triple-digit rates.
Strong fundamentals, yet foreign funds treated the stock as an exit target. In my years running a creative agency, I’ve seen this pattern before: the loudest moment of a brand’s success is often when the earliest believers are already checking the door.
What Foreign Funds Are Actually Selling
Two explanations cover most of the selling logic. First: profit-taking. After a meaningful run-up, a record EPS print is a textbook “good news priced in” moment — the catalyst arrives, the position closes. Second: capital rotation. Foreign funds chasing Japanese equities and U.S. small-caps need liquidity from somewhere. A high-weight, high-liquidity name like Quanta becomes the ATM.
Neither explanation requires anything to have gone wrong inside Quanta. That distinction matters.
RSI at 24 signals oversold conditions. But “oversold” only tells you the selling has stretched beyond normal bounds — it says nothing about when it stops. How much more foreign inventory is still queued for sale? Are algorithmic strategies piling on? Technical readings can’t answer those questions.
RISK_ON Doesn’t Mean Every Stock Is Safe
This episode makes one thing clear: a bullish macro environment does not protect individual stocks. RISK_ON means investors are willing to take risk — but it also means they have choices. When capital is flowing freely, the crowded trade often gets sold to fund the next idea. Quanta’s problem is that its AI server story has been well-told for some time, and the next catalyst — new shipment guidance, the next product cycle — hasn’t arrived yet. Money tends to exit stories at intermission.
A NT$35.8 billion single-day sell-off doesn’t necessarily mean the market is saying Quanta’s story is over. It might just be saying this chapter has been read.
— 胡凱翊（Kevin）
This article is personal research notes and does not constitute investment advice.
Related Posts
https://justfly.idv.tw/s/1AMNMKe