棲蘭山林道，一頭15歲的台灣黑熊在雞舍邊緣徘徊。牠的體重是70公斤。
這個數字需要一點背景才能讓人真正不舒服：台灣黑熊成年體重的正常範圍是60到200公斤，一頭15歲的個體理應早就超過100公斤。70公斤，代表牠比應有體重低了30%以上。牠沒有受傷的紀錄，牠只是找不到足夠的食物。所以牠走下山，走進了人類的養雞場邊界。
林業及自然保育署在2026年4月宣布這個案例時，用的語言是「棲地警訊」。但70公斤這個數字本身，比任何行政語言都直白——那是一座山林餵不飽自己旗艦物種的物理證明。
五個裂縫，同時開口
棲蘭山的那頭熊不是個案，牠是系統性崩解的一個截面。台灣黑熊族群面臨的壓力，至少從五個方向同時施加：食物資源不足、棲地破碎化導致族群孤立、獵具誤傷、肢體殘損、遺傳多樣性偏低。
其中最觸目驚心的是陷阱數據：現有紀錄顯示，38%的台灣黑熊有陷阱受傷經歷，50%出現斷掌或斷趾。這意味著在台灣中央山脈活動的黑熊裡，每兩頭就有一頭是帶著殘肢在山林間移動的。遺傳多樣性偏低則說明另一件事：這些族群長期被切割在各自的山頭上，近親繁殖的壓力正在累積。
2019年「山林開放」政策讓登山人數激增，人熊接觸事件隨之攀升。2025年全年記錄到15件人熊衝突，2026年截至報告發布時已有4件。衝突增加固然部分反映族群數量回升的正向訊號，但棲地邊界模糊、人類活動深入山區，讓這兩件事情很難被乾淨地分開討論。
布農族的tumaz與25年的田野
布農族稱台灣黑熊為「tumaz」——森林人。傳統禁獵規範裡，黑熊是神聖存在，不能獵殺。這個認知存在了幾百年，在現代保育框架出現之前就已經是一套完整的生態倫理。
黃美秀教授從1998年開始進入山區做田野調查，到現在超過25年，是台灣黑熊研究最系統性的紀錄者，也創立了台灣黑熊保育協會。她的工作有一個核心邏輯：數據為熊發聲。玉山國家公園目前已完成139個個體的DNA辨識建檔，是台灣黑熊族群研究裡最具體的成果之一。而就在近期，研究者首次記錄到一頭母熊同時攜帶3隻幼崽——在台灣黑熊的觀察史上，這從未發生過。
3隻幼崽，是一個族群在壓力下仍試圖繁殖的訊號。也是一個讓人必須繼續做下去的理由。
黃石的40年能否複製
有一個比較值得放在這裡。40年前，美國黃石公園的灰熊族群瀕臨滅絕，數量不足200隻。經過跨機構的長期協作與嚴格棲地保護，如今黃石灰熊族群已回升至700隻以上。從數字到邏輯，這個案例在台灣是適用的——前提是棲地破碎必須停止。
林業及自然保育署在2026年3月公布了台灣黑熊的首次全島族群初步估算：約1,200隻。這個數字比過去「少於500隻」的估計大幅上修，部分原因是監測技術改善（全國紅外線攝影機網絡去除重複記錄後統計），最終精確數字預計在2026年底前發布。1,200這個數字是希望，也是需要被小心對待的數字——族群擴散至山麓平原，表示棲地邊界正在位移，而不一定表示山林的承載能力已經恢復。
台東預計在2028年完工的長期收容中心，是基礎設施層面的一步。但設施解決不了食物資源的問題，解決不了陷阱，解決不了每一頭斷掌的熊在山裡是如何謀生的。
那頭70公斤的熊現在在哪裡
棲蘭山林道的那頭15歲黑熊，在林保署發出通報之後，沒有後續的公開追蹤紀錄。牠可能回到了山裡，可能繼續在農業邊界游走，可能已經誤入了某個陷阱。
70公斤是一個數字，但它指向的是一個具體的生命，在一個具體的地方，用自己的身體重量告訴你某些事情正在失效。台灣黑熊胸前那個白色V字斑紋，被稱為「月熊」的標誌，在38%的個體身上，搭配的是某一隻或兩隻殘掌。
這不是氣候變遷的抽象論述，這是一頭在雞舍邊徘徊的老熊，和牠70公斤的體重。窗口在縮窄，不是隱喻。
— 鍾雅筑
延伸閱讀
A 70-Kilogram Bear Is the Alarm Taiwan Cannot Ignore
A 15-year-old Formosan black bear was spotted near a chicken farm on the Cilan Mountain Road. It weighed 70 kilograms.
That number needs context to land properly: adult Formosan black bears normally weigh between 60 and 200 kilograms, and a 15-year-old individual should have cleared 100 kilograms years ago. At 70 kilograms — more than 30% below normal — the bear had no recorded injuries. It simply could not find enough food in the mountains. So it walked down to the edge of a farm.
When the Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency announced the case in April 2026, they called it a habitat warning signal. The number 70 kilograms said it more directly than any administrative language could: a mountain range that cannot feed its own flagship species is a mountain range in measurable trouble.
Five Fractures, Opening at Once
The Cilan bear is not an isolated case. The pressures on Formosan black bears (Ursus thibetanus formosanus) arrive from at least five directions simultaneously: insufficient food resources, habitat fragmentation isolating populations, trap injuries, limb loss, and low genetic diversity indicating severe population isolation.
The trap data is the hardest to look at. Existing records show that 38% of Formosan black bears carry injuries from traps, and 50% show signs of severed paws or toes. That means roughly one in every two bears moving through Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range is doing so on a partial limb. Low genetic diversity compounds this — populations cut off from each other by roads, tea plantations, and development corridors are accumulating inbreeding pressure with no outlet.
After the 2019 mountain access liberalization policy opened Taiwan’s highlands to a surge of hikers, human-bear contact events climbed. In 2025, fifteen human-bear conflicts were recorded. By the time of the March 2026 report, four more had already occurred that year.
What 25 Years of Fieldwork Looks Like
The Bunun people have called the Formosan black bear tumaz — forest person — and maintained traditional prohibitions against hunting it long before modern conservation frameworks existed. That ethical architecture predates the science by centuries.
Professor Hwang Mei-hsiu has been conducting systematic field research on Formosan black bears since 1998, founding the Taiwan Black Bear Conservation Association (www.taiwanbear.org.tw) along the way. Her core method: let data speak for the bears. Yushan National Park has now completed DNA identification and profiling for 139 individual bears — the most granular population record Taiwan has. Recently, researchers recorded a mother bear accompanied by three cubs simultaneously, the first such observation in the history of Formosan black bear monitoring.
Three cubs at once is a population under pressure still trying to reproduce. It is also the kind of finding that keeps a researcher going back up the mountain.
What Yellowstone’s 40 Years Actually Proves
Forty years ago, the grizzly bear population in Yellowstone National Park had fallen below 200 individuals. Through cross-agency cooperation and strict habitat protection, that population has since recovered to over 700. The trajectory is applicable to Taiwan — but only if habitat fragmentation stops. That is the conditional at the center of everything.
The Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency published Taiwan’s first nationwide Formosan black bear population estimate in March 2026: approximately 1,200 individuals, significantly revised upward from earlier estimates of fewer than 500. The final figure is expected to be refined by the end of 2026. The number reflects improved monitoring — a national infrared camera network with duplicate records removed — not necessarily a fully recovered forest ecosystem. Populations expanding toward lowland farmland indicate shifting range boundaries, not restored carrying capacity in the highlands.
A long-term bear housing facility is planned for Taitung, with completion targeted for 2028. Infrastructure helps. It does not resolve food scarcity. It does not dismantle the traps. It does not explain how a bear with a severed paw survives a winter at altitude.
The 70-kilogram bear on Cilan Mountain Road has no publicly documented follow-up. It may have retreated into the forest. It may still be circling the farm boundary. The white V-shaped chest marking that gives the Formosan black bear its other name — moon bear — appears on animals where, in 50% of cases, one or both forepaws are missing digits.
The window is narrowing. That is not a metaphor. It is a bear’s weight on a scale.
— 鍾雅筑
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